We’re down to the final three weeks of the NFL regular season and there are still many playoff spots available and division titles up for grabs. As the excitement builds, every game becomes crucial, especially for teams vying for those coveted postseason positions.
Key Matchups to Watch
Perhaps the first game of Week 16 will give us another clinched playoff spot if the Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night. The Chargers could also officially earn a playoff spot with a win over the Broncos, but they will need some help on Sunday.
Surprisingly, there could be three playoff teams from the AFC West, which not many expected heading into the season. No one doubted the Kansas City Chiefs would be a playoff team again—and they already wrapped up the AFC West—but there’s concern regarding the health of Patrick Mahomes, who injured his ankle last week against the Cleveland Browns.
With the Chiefs still battling for the No. 1 seed, they might roll the dice and play Mahomes on Saturday against the Houston Texans. Kansas City is in the midst of a brutal three-game stretch in 11 days. Perhaps we’ll see backup Carson Wentz against Houston’s rugged defense if the Chiefs decide to play it safe.
The Baltimore Ravens can gain ground in the AFC North by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Pittsburgh got the best of its divisional rival in the first meeting, but might enter Baltimore without George Pickens and T.J. Watt, two star players who are both dealing with injuries.
We’ll also keep close tabs on the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including key matchups, essential stats, fantasy football advice, best bets, and predictions for each game.
Thursday Night Showdown: Broncos vs. Chargers
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Spread: Chargers -2.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto vs. Chargers’ tackles. Bonitto is starting to gain attention for Defensive Player of the Year with the way he’s impacted games this season. With 11.5 sacks this season, he has returned an interception and a fumble recovery for touchdowns, including last week’s 50-yard return against the Indianapolis Colts. However, he must contend with the Chargers’ dominant bookend tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. This might be the one strength on a thin Chargers’ offense.
Key stat: The Broncos have the NFL’s top defense in points allowed per drive (1.51), and they face a hobbled Chargers offense that has scored a mere 17 points in each of its past three games.
Start ’em/sit ’em: Bo Nix has posted a pair of subpar stat lines, scoring a combined 25.7 fantasy points in his past two games. He remains a borderline QB1 this week, facing a Chargers defense that’s allowing more than 17 points per game to quarterbacks since Week 8.
Best bet: Broncos +2.5. The Chargers’ biggest strengths in the first half of the season were running the ball and playing solid defense. Both have diminished lately, and now, Justin Herbert & Co. will need to throw against the Broncos’ secondary, which is the best in the NFL.
SI’s pick: I like Denver. Justin Herbert was beat up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago, and I would guess Vance Joseph is going to press the line in a similar way and try to unleash the Broncos’ pass rush. In a game that has major playoff implications, I’m calling a narrow Denver win highlighted by a few big Nix rushes.
Saturday’s Crucial Contests
Chiefs vs. Texans
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Chiefs -3 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rushers vs. Chiefs’ OL. If the Chiefs clear Mahomes to play despite his ankle injury, they’re taking a big risk. Their offensive line has struggled, facing the daunting challenge of containing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have a combined 22.5 sacks.
Key stat: Houston has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud this season, allowing 46 sacks, the fourth-most in football.
Start ’em/sit ’em: Stroud has been one of the biggest fantasy duds, failing to score more than 16 points in eight consecutive games.
Best bet: Texans +3. The Chiefs’ biggest strength is their third down offense, but they now face one of the best third down defenses in the NFL.
SI’s pick: I took the Chiefs because I like what I think Steve Spagnuolo can do to a shaky Stroud. This Chiefs’ defense has been key to their narrow win streak.
Ravens vs. Steelers
When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Ravens -6.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Steelers RB Najee Harris vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Pittsburgh needs a dominant performance from Harris, especially if Pickens is ruled out.
Key stat: When the Ravens run the ball, it’ll be strength against strength. The Ravens have rushed for a league-best 5.7 YPC.
Start ’em/sit ’em: Russell Wilson has posted mediocre totals lately, scoring 16 or fewer fantasy points in four of his past five games.
Best bet: Ravens -6. The Ravens have fixed their defensive issues and lead the NFL in net yards per play at +1.6.
SI’s pick: I took Baltimore, but I caution that Jackson needs to shake the narrative of how he plays in the clutch deep in the season.
Sunday’s Action-Packed Games
Eagles vs. Commanders
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Eagles -3.5 (over/under: 45.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore. Brown had eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last week.
Key stat: Only the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints have allowed more yards per carry than the Commanders this season.
Start ’em/sit ’em: Brian Robinson Jr. had a so-so stat line last week and now faces a much tougher spot against the Eagles.
Best bet: Eagles -3.5. Washington’s offense has regressed in the second half of the season.
SI’s pick: The Eagles bottled up Washington so well last time, and I expect a similar result.
Vikings vs. Seahawks
When/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -3.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Vikings RB Aaron Jones vs. Seahawks LB Ernest Jones IV.
Key stat: Minnesota blitzes on 36.3% of snaps, the highest percentage in the NFL.
Start ’em/sit ’em: If Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a start ’em, then beware of Metcalf.
Best bet: Vikings -3.5. Minnesota has too many ways to beat a stumbling Seattle team.
All best bet odds courtesy FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
