Week five of the NFL season finishes with a thrilling clash between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs at the iconic Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. The last time these two powerhouses met was back in Week 15 of the 2020 season, a nail-biter that saw the Chiefs edge out a 32-29 victory.
Oh, how times have changed, particularly for the Saints. Back then, Sean Payton was orchestrating plays from the sidelines and Drew Brees was launching passes with precision. Fast forward to today, and it’s Dennis Allen at the helm with quarterback Derek Carr under center. Allen holds a 2-2 career record against the Chiefs, while Carr’s career mark stands at a challenging 3-14.
TAXES AND TRENDS
It’s little wonder that Kansas City opened as an eight-point favorite, riding high on an undefeated streak and the electric support of their home crowd. However, the line has since adjusted to -5.5, reflecting shifts in market perception.
Rewind to the previous encounter where Mahomes was still cashing in his rookie contract paychecks, Carr was in his Raiders debut, and Allen was the Saints’ defensive coordinator. Mahomes dissected Allen’s defense to the tune of 254 yards and three touchdowns off 26 completions from 47 attempts.
If this showdown had occurred in Week 3 following the Saints’ consecutive 40-point explosions, the spread might not have seemed so lopsided. Injuries were already creeping into the Chiefs’ offensive schematics. Could the Saints have swung the odds in their favor back then? Highly doubtful. With a healthy Mahomes, the Chiefs transform Arrowhead into a fortress where losses are rare.
Yet, as Monday night approaches, these Saints are unlikely to elicit much exuberance from the crowd. Bettors seem resolute, with an overwhelming 88% of moneyline bets and 72% of spread bets banking on the Chiefs to seize victory.
ACCESSORY SELECTIONS
- Travis Kelce, O/U 5.5 Receptions at +100/-130 (FanDuel): Judging by his output over the season’s opening weeks, banking on the UNDER seems pragmatic. Kelce’s reception haul hit four, three, and five over Weeks 1 to 3, mushrooming to nine by Week 4. But with injuries thinning Kansas City’s receiver corps, Mahomes is likely to engage his most dependable target frequently.
- Xavier Worthy, O/U 2.5 yards rushing at -120/-110: Chiefs schemer Andy Reid thrives on innovation. Given Kansas City’s injury plight, expect them to call on the rookie receiver’s speed for a handful of trick plays. His blazing pace should earn him at least three yards with ease.
KEY STATISTICS
Carr’s track record against the Chiefs leans heavily to the negative. Over 17 matchups during his Raiders tenure, only thrice did victory smile on him, including once at Arrowhead in 2020. His average of 242.4 yards per game with a 62.5% completion rate across these contests, coupled with a TD to interception ratio of 26:17, underscores the challenge lying ahead.
THE NEWS
Injuries are the bane of every NFL team’s existence, and how they are managed can make or break a season. Both the Saints and Chiefs, preparing for Monday night’s spectacle, are well-acquainted with this harsh reality.
The Saints will miss versatile Taysom Hill for a second week, while the offensive line faces significant disruptions. Center Erik McCoy’s groin injury earned him a spot on injured reserve as Shane Lemieux, his replacement, grapples with an ankle setback.
The Saints’ woes don’t end there. Right guard Cesar Ruiz deals with a knee affliction, leaving rookies Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning to anchor a depleted line. While Fuaga contends with his knee and back, he’s slated to play.
The Chiefs are no strangers to injury turmoil either. Key positional talents like Marquise Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have been sidelined, with Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice joining them alongside question marks over Kareem Hunt and Mecole Hardman’s fitness.
INJURY REPORT
For the Chiefs, besides the offensive concerns, defensive figures Derrick Nnadi, Mike Danna, and Nick Bolton were cleared post-practice issues on Saturday. Hunt and Hardman, despite setbacks, participated fully.
The Saints face a longer list, with luminaries like Hill, Ruiz, and Lemieux absent, alongside defensive stalwarts like Payton Turner. Patrick’s participation is in question, with Fuaga a tentative go despite practice limitations.
FORECAST
The buzz for Saints at +5.5 gets louder, with whispers of Kansas City’s fragility due to injuries abounding.
Yet, as long as Mahomes and Kelce remain a tandem, the Chiefs’ offensive machine will hum along. The Saints face a daunting test with their patched-up offensive line versus a stout Kansas City defense.
Final Whistle Prediction: Chiefs 17, Saints 7
–Travis Pulver, Field-Level Media
