In Alabama’s first year under head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide faced a season filled with ups and downs, finishing with a 9-3 overall record and a 5-3 mark in the SEC. This marked a significant shift for the storied program, as it was the first time since 2010 that Alabama failed to reach double-digit regular season wins. Despite the disappointment, the Crimson Tide still hold a flicker of hope for a spot in the College Football Playoff, thanks to the newly introduced 12-team playoff format.
Alabama’s Path to the Playoff
While the Crimson Tide’s three losses may seem daunting, they still have a shot at the postseason. Historically, no team with three losses has made the playoff, but this year presents a unique scenario. The committee’s evaluation of teams with three losses in stronger conferences, like the SEC, versus teams with fewer losses in weaker conferences could play a crucial role. Alabama finds itself in a competitive bubble alongside other three-loss SEC teams such as Ole Miss and South Carolina, while also contending with two-loss non-SEC teams like Miami.
The committee’s decision-making process will be closely watched, especially with teams vying for at-large bids. Notably, SMU, boasting an 11-1 record, is set to compete for the ACC title. If the Mustangs fall to Clemson, they could enter the at-large conversation, further complicating Alabama’s playoff aspirations.
Breaking Down Alabama’s Losses
Alabama’s three losses in 2024 have certainly raised eyebrows, but let’s take a closer look at each defeat and what it means for their playoff chances. The first setback came against unranked Vanderbilt in early October. At that time, Alabama was riding high as the No. 1 team in the nation, fresh off a significant victory over rival Georgia. The loss to Vanderbilt, who had a dismal record of 1-2 at the time, felt particularly harsh, especially considering Alabama’s historical dominance over the Commodores.
Vanderbilt finished the season with a respectable 6-6 record, but the sting of that loss lingered for Crimson Tide fans, especially when you consider that Vanderbilt had been outscored 148-3 in their previous three matchups against Alabama. The Commodores shocked the college football world by scoring 40 points to upset the top-ranked team, leaving many to wonder how such a slip could happen.
Two weeks later, Alabama faced Tennessee in a pivotal SEC showdown. The Volunteers, who have also been in the playoff conversation, handed Alabama a 24-17 defeat. This loss is arguably the most justifiable of the season, as Tennessee finished with a strong 10-2 record and is expected to secure a playoff spot. The committee is likely to view this loss in a more favorable light, understanding the competitive nature of the matchup.
Finally, Alabama’s recent loss to unranked Oklahoma in Norman, where they fell 24-3, marked a new low for the program. This defeat not only secured Alabama’s first three-loss regular season since 2010 but also raised questions about the team’s consistency. Oklahoma, finishing the year at 6-6, had high expectations at the start of the season but struggled to meet them. This loss, coupled with the others, has left Alabama in a precarious position.
Alabama’s Home Success and SEC Standing
Despite the setbacks, Alabama showcased their strength at home, finishing the season with a perfect 7-0 record in front of their fans. However, their 5-3 SEC record leaves them tied for fourth in the conference, which complicates their playoff narrative. The SEC is known for its competitiveness, and Alabama’s performance against their conference rivals will be scrutinized by the committee.
The Crimson Tide’s ability to bounce back from these losses and perform well in their remaining games will be critical. They must hope that the committee will recognize the strength of their schedule and the quality of their opponents when considering their playoff bid.
The Road Ahead
As the playoff picture begins to take shape, Alabama’s fate hangs in the balance. The expectation is that the committee will rank Alabama favorably compared to other at-large bubble teams. Currently, they sit at No. 11 in the latest AP poll, which suggests that their chances are still alive. With the right outcomes in conference championships and potential upsets in other games, the Crimson Tide could find themselves in the playoff conversation.
In this first year of the 12-team playoff format, the landscape of college football is shifting. Will the committee take a chance on a three-loss Alabama team, or will they prioritize teams with fewer losses? The coming weeks will be crucial, and Alabama fans are left hoping for a favorable outcome as the playoff race heats up. The stakes are high, and the excitement is palpable as the Crimson Tide aim to reclaim their spot among college football’s elite.
