With just days left until the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is unveiled, excitement is building among fans and analysts alike. The landscape of college football is buzzing with speculation, and many believe they have a solid grasp on the playoff picture.
Who’s In and Who’s Out?
In no particular order, teams like Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana, and Tennessee seem to have secured their spots in the playoff. Following them, the champions from the ACC, Big 12, and Mountain West are almost guaranteed to join the fray. But here’s where it gets interesting: there’s one coveted spot still up for grabs, and it could lead to some serious chaos.
Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina are all vying for that final playoff bid, but each of them carries three losses. Meanwhile, Miami, boasting a record of 10-2, enters the conversation with a better overall record. This raises an intriguing question: how does Miami’s strength of schedule in the ACC stack up against the SEC teams with their 9-3 records?
The Battle of Strength of Schedules
As we dive deeper into the playoff contenders, the strength of schedule becomes a pivotal factor. It’s not just about wins and losses; it’s about who you played and how tough those games were. According to ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, the five toughest schedules in the nation belong to SEC teams: Mississippi State, Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Florida.
Given the SEC’s reputation for being a powerhouse conference, a three-loss SEC team might be favored over an ACC team with two losses. So, where does each contender stand in this critical metric?
Alabama’s Case
Alabama ranks a solid 17th in strength of schedule. The Crimson Tide faced three non-power conference teams but still managed to secure victories against projected playoff contender Georgia, as well as South Carolina (9-3), Missouri (9-3), and LSU (8-4). However, their losses against Vanderbilt (6-6), Tennessee (10-2), and Oklahoma (6-6) raise eyebrows. Two of those defeats were particularly hard to justify.
Ole Miss’s Challenge
Ole Miss finds itself at 31st in strength of schedule. This ranking could be a significant factor when the final playoff rankings are revealed. Despite competing in a tough SEC, Ole Miss avoided facing Texas, Tennessee, and Alabama this season. They did score a notable win over Georgia but suffered defeats against LSU (8-4), Florida (7-5), and Kentucky (4-8). The loss to Kentucky could be seen as a major setback compared to the other SEC contenders.
South Carolina’s Sneaky Bid
South Carolina is positioned slightly better, ranking 15th in strength of schedule. The Gamecocks have a compelling case for a playoff spot, having faced a tougher schedule than both Alabama and Ole Miss. However, they lost to both of those teams. Their losses came against solid opponents: Alabama (9-3), Ole Miss (9-3), and LSU (8-4). While they don’t have any bad losses, those head-to-head defeats could be the deciding factor in the playoff selection.
Miami’s Position
Now, let’s turn our attention to Miami, which ranks 55th in strength of schedule. This significant gap compared to the SEC schools puts the Hurricanes in a precarious position. Despite their impressive 10-win season, they are not considered a lock for the playoffs.
Miami’s two losses came against winning teams: Georgia Tech (7-5) and Syracuse (9-3). But the question remains: do they have enough quality wins to warrant a playoff spot? Their best victories include Florida (7-5), Duke (9-3), and Louisville (8-4), but the lack of standout wins could hinder their chances despite only two losses.
SMU’s Dark Horse Status
Let’s not forget about SMU, which ranks 75th in strength of schedule. This puts them below several Group of Five programs and second-to-last among power conference teams, only ahead of North Carolina. If SMU were to lose the ACC championship to Clemson, they would finish with an 11-2 record, with losses only to BYU (10-2) and the ACC champion.
While a lack of bad losses could work in SMU’s favor, the absence of signature wins remains a concern. Winning 11 games is no small feat, but if they don’t clinch the conference title, they may find themselves in a tough spot against Miami and the three-loss SEC contenders due to their weaker schedule.
What Lies Ahead?
As we approach the playoff rankings announcement, the debate surrounding the final playoff spot is heating up. Will the committee prioritize the strength of schedule? Will they favor a team with fewer losses, even if those losses came against weaker opponents?
The stakes are high, and the implications of these decisions could reshape the playoff landscape for years to come. With so much on the line, fans are left wondering: who will claim that final spot, and what chaos might ensue? The excitement is palpable, and the answers are just around the corner.
