The College Football Playoff (CFP) race has been dramatically reshaped following a thrilling Week 11 filled with upsets. With two teams from the initial CFP Top 25 falling, the competition for the coveted 12 playoff spots has intensified significantly.
Ohio State’s Commanding Performance
Ohio State showcased its dominance in Week 11, defeating Purdue 45-0. As the Buckeyes gear up for a critical showdown against Indiana on November 23, they have established themselves as a formidable contender. The CFP committee’s initial rankings reflected this, valuing Ohio State’s narrow loss to No. 1 Oregon over Indiana’s undefeated status. With a near 70% chance of winning against the Hoosiers, Ohio State must first focus on their upcoming match against Northwestern in Week 12.
Oregon’s Impressive Resume
Oregon has emerged as a powerhouse this season, boasting a perfect 5-0 record against teams with winning records. Their standout victory against Ohio State has solidified their position at the top of the rankings. After a convincing 39-18 win over Maryland in Week 11, the Ducks possess the best strength of record metric among all undefeated teams. It appears unlikely that the committee will place any team ahead of Oregon, especially considering their impressive performance since beating the Buckeyes.
Georgia’s Shocking Loss
In a stunning turn of events, Georgia suffered a 28-10 defeat to Ole Miss, marking one of the most significant upsets of Week 11. Despite their earlier success against Florida, the Bulldogs struggled to regain control after scoring the first touchdown. This loss complicates their playoff aspirations, but a win against Texas in Week 12 could significantly alter their standing. Additionally, they have a chance to bolster their resume in the regular season finale against in-state rival Georgia Tech.
The Rise of Texas
Texas, despite a previous loss to Georgia, may find itself benefiting from the Bulldogs’ recent struggles. The committee often considers common opponents, and Texas’s 49-17 victory over Florida stands in stark contrast to Georgia’s narrow win over the same team. As a result, the Longhorns are poised to be the top-ranked SEC team when the new rankings are released. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been instrumental in Texas’s success, throwing for five touchdowns and 333 yards in a dominant performance.
Penn State’s Positioning
Penn State’s narrow loss to Ohio State has left them in a precarious position. CFP committee chair Warde Manuel acknowledged that their one-score loss was more favorable than Tennessee’s defeat to unranked Arkansas. However, the Nittany Lions lack a signature win over any team in the initial CFP Top 25, making their chances of securing a Big Ten Championship berth increasingly slim. As the regular season winds down, they may find themselves hosting a playoff game without a standout victory to bolster their case.
The Vols’ Potential Surge
Tennessee is on the verge of making a significant leap in the CFP rankings, especially if they can secure victories over both Georgia and Alabama in the coming weeks. The Crimson Tide’s earlier win against Georgia adds an intriguing layer to this potential scenario. The Vols have been consistent since their victory over Alabama, defeating Kentucky and Mississippi State. However, the committee may still favor Indiana after their impressive win against Michigan.
Indiana’s Undefeated Status
Indiana’s undefeated record has garnered attention, but their strength of schedule remains a concern. Currently ranked 103rd overall, the Hoosiers’ recent victory over Michigan enhances their standing, yet they will need to prove themselves against Ohio State. With a bye week in Week 12, Indiana has extra time to prepare for this crucial matchup, which could elevate their ranking even further.
BYU’s Narrow Escape
BYU managed to keep its undefeated season alive with a last-second field goal victory over Utah, winning 22-21. However, the game was not without controversy. Despite notable wins over ranked teams like SMU and Kansas State, the Cougars may not see significant movement in the rankings this week. If they stumble before the regular season concludes or in the Big 12 Championship, the conference could lose its first-round bye, with Boise State potentially emerging as a top contender.
Notre Dame’s Strong Case
Notre Dame has positioned itself well in the playoff race, boasting victories over two teams in the initial CFP rankings: No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 22 Louisville. Their impressive win against Navy has also caught the committee’s eye. With another opportunity for a ranked win against Army on November 23, the Fighting Irish could strengthen their case for an at-large bid. However, their early-season loss to Northern Illinois continues to hold them back from climbing higher in the rankings.
Alabama’s Continued Dominance
Alabama solidified its status as a playoff contender with a decisive 42-13 victory over LSU in Week 11. With Georgia now a fellow two-loss team, the Crimson Tide’s earlier win over the Bulldogs should keep them ahead in the rankings. ESPN gives Alabama a greater than 78% chance of winning its remaining regular-season games, but questions remain about how the committee will rank Miami in comparison to the two-loss teams.
Projected Rankings Ahead
As the playoff picture becomes clearer, the predicted rankings are as follows:
11. Miami Hurricanes (9-1) -7
12. Boise State Broncos (8-1)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) +3
14. SMU Mustangs (8-1) -1
15. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) -1
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) +3
17. Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) +3
18. Washington State (8-1) +3
19. LSU Tigers (6-3) -4
20. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) (Previously unranked)
21. Louisville Cardinals (6-3) +1
22. Clemson Tigers (7-2) +1
23. Missouri Tigers (7-2) +1
24. Pitt Panthers (7-2) -6
25. Army Black Knights (9-0)
As we look ahead, the excitement of college football continues to build, with each game holding the potential to reshape the playoff landscape. Who will rise, and who will fall as we approach the final weeks of the season? Only time will tell!
