The Atlanta Falcons are eager to bounce back from their Week 1 debacle with a challenging Monday night clash against the Philadelphia Eagles
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In recent years, the Eagles have dominated this matchup, triumphing in four of their last five encounters with the Falcons.
However, new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins brings a notable advantage—he holds a winning record against the Eagles (6-5). Still, Cousins has notoriously struggled on Monday Night Football, with a dismal 3-10 record. In contrast, Jalen Hurts is an even 4-4 on MNF, including a decisive 24-7 victory over Cousins back when he was with the Vikings in Week 2 of the 2022 season.
Probability and Trends
Despite their impressive Week 1 performance against the Packers, Philadelphia opened as a home favorite by just 4.5 points. However, the line quickly shifted, and bettors can now find the Eagles at -5.5. Meanwhile, Atlanta fans are looking at the Eagles at +6.5.
The two teams last faced off in Week 1 of the 2021 season, where Philadelphia destroyed Atlanta 32-6. Interestingly, the last showdown between Hurts and Cousins was in 2023, when Cousins was with the Vikings in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Despite Cousins throwing for 364 yards and four touchdowns, Hurts emerged victorious with a 34-28 win.
Given Philadelphia’s strong Week 1 performance, it’s no surprise the crowd is heavily backing the Eagles. At BetMGM, a staggering 82% of spread bets and 88% of money bets are on Philadelphia.
While industry averages show that 47% of spread tickets are for Philadelphia and 53% for Atlanta, the winning bets still favor the Eagles, with an eye-popping 92% of bets and 95% of entries.
Recent history in MNF favors the home team, boasting a 59-43 record over the last five years. However, betting on the visiting team has also proven profitable with a 53-45-4 ATS record. Since 2018, favorites are 67-37 SU and 45-55-4 ATS.
Prop Bets to Watch
- –Saquon Barkley, 2+ TDs, +270 on FanDuel: Barkley shone in Week 1 with three touchdowns against the Packers, two rushing and one receiving. Expect a similar performance with creative play-calling near the goal line from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
- –Jalen Hurts, O/U 39.5 Rushing Yards, -113/-113 on FanDuel: Hurts’ rushing ability makes him a dual-threat QB. Yet, Moore appeared hesitant to call designed runs for him in Week 1. With Barkley set to handle the ground game, expect fewer rushing yards from Hurts. We recommend taking the UNDER.
Key Stats
Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games but just 3-10 on Monday nights. Despite the poor win-loss record, he ranks 12th in passer rating among 64 quarterbacks who have attempted over 500 passes in primetime.
The Storyline
Expectations were sky-high for the Atlanta Falcons coming into this season, especially with skill position stars like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London.
Enter Kirk Cousins.
Despite his teams’ lack of postseason success, Cousins’ ability to move the ball is undeniable, especially via the pass. In six seasons with the Vikings, he exceeded 4,000 passing yards in four of them.
His best season might be his first, when he made history as the NFL’s first quarterback to complete 70% of his passes for 30 touchdowns, 4,000 yards, and 10 interceptions.
However, Falcons fans expecting that Cousins in Week 1 were sorely disappointed. The offense managed just 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. Cousins was sacked twice and threw two interceptions as the Falcons lost 18-10 to the Steelers.
While disheartening, several factors played a part. Week 1 marked Cousins’ first game back after an Achilles injury that sidelined him for the second half of 2023. It was also his debut with a new team, offense, coordinator, and new supporting cast.
Given the brief adjustment period, Cousins and the Falcons can only get better.
The question remains: Can they improve enough to compete with the Eagles tonight?
Injury Report
Both teams have key players out for Monday night. The Eagles will be without star receiver AJ Brown (hamstring), while the Falcons will miss cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. (groin) and linebacker Nate Landman (calf, quads). Eagles’ receiver Johnny Wilson remains doubtful.
Prediction
If Cousins and the Falcons’ offense can fire on all cylinders, this could be a competitive game. However, struggles seem likely, which could lower expectations for Atlanta’s attack.
With a depleted offense, the Falcons’ defense will have a hard time with Philadelphia’s explosive unit led by Hurts, who will miss Brown but still has plenty of weapons.
Final Prediction: Eagles 28, Falcons 13
