Sam Darnold is coming off the best statistical season of his career. He led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-win season, throwing for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdown passes. He also scored 307.9 fantasy points, which is 118.7 more points than his previous career high. But despite these impressive numbers, there’s a growing concern among fantasy football enthusiasts: Is Darnold a potential bust candidate for next season?
So, why the skepticism? Well, it all hinges on what the Vikings decide to do with him in the offseason. Darnold is slated to become a free agent, and his fantasy value could take a significant hit if Minnesota chooses to let him walk. After all, his first six seasons in the league were filled with challenges, and many argue that he truly thrived in the quarterback-friendly system orchestrated by head coach Kevin O’Connell.
System Matters
O’Connell’s system has proven to be a boon for quarterbacks. Just look at veteran Kirk Cousins, who put up top-10 fantasy numbers in his first two seasons as the starter in Minnesota. In 2022, Cousins finished as the QB8, and in 2023, he was on pace for a career-high 318.1 points before suffering an Achilles injury after eight games. Interestingly, Cousins struggled in his final season with the Vikings, leading to a benching after he moved to Atlanta in 2024.
This raises an important question: Can Darnold maintain his success if he’s not in O’Connell’s system? The answer may not be so straightforward.
Recent Performance Raises Red Flags
Just two weeks ago, Darnold’s future with the Vikings seemed secure. However, he faltered in the team’s final two games when the pressure was on. In a crucial Week 18 loss to the Lions, he failed to throw a touchdown and posted a dismal 55.5 passer rating. Then, in the Wild Card round, he struggled again, finishing with 245 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a lost fumble that was returned for a touchdown, resulting in a 77.6 rating in a blowout loss to the Rams.
Suddenly, his future in purple and white is looking a bit murky.
Drafting J.J. McCarthy
Adding to the uncertainty, the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. McCarthy is waiting in the wings and could be a more cost-effective option than what Darnold might command on the open market as a free agent. This begs the question: Will the Vikings choose to invest in Darnold or hand the reins over to the rookie?
The point here is clear: Darnold benefitted immensely from O’Connell’s system, as well as from having elite talents like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal. If Darnold finds himself in a less favorable situation—such as with the Titans, Browns, Giants, or Raiders—he could quickly become a fantasy bust.
What’s Next for Darnold?
For Darnold to remain relevant in fantasy football, the best-case scenario would be for the Vikings to re-sign or franchise him and potentially trade McCarthy, who could fetch a significant return. However, if Darnold dons a new uniform next season, or if the Vikings decide to keep both him and McCarthy, there’s a real possibility that Darnold’s statistical output and fantasy value could plummet faster than the Vikings’ 2024 season.
As we look ahead to next season, fantasy managers need to weigh the risks and rewards associated with Darnold. His impressive stats from last season are enticing, but the uncertainty surrounding his future is a significant factor.
Final Thoughts
In the world of NFL fantasy football, timing and context are everything. Darnold’s success was undoubtedly bolstered by a supportive system and a talented roster. As the offseason unfolds, keep a close eye on the Vikings’ decisions regarding Darnold and McCarthy. The fantasy landscape can shift rapidly, and being proactive could make all the difference in your draft strategy for the upcoming season.
Stay tuned, because the offseason is just getting started, and the decisions made in Minnesota could have a ripple effect throughout the league. Will Darnold remain a fantasy star, or will he fade into obscurity? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: the NFL fantasy community will be watching closely.
