The race to the inaugural expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is heating up, and the excitement is palpable! With just two weekends left in the 2024 regular season, the stakes couldn’t be higher. As teams vie for their shot at the national championship, Vegas oddsmakers have been busy recalibrating the odds based on the latest developments from Week 12 of college football action.
Ohio State’s Championship Aspirations
Ohio State (9-1, 6-1) may be ranked No. 2 in the national polls, but when it comes to championship odds, the Buckeyes reign supreme. Heading into a critical matchup against undefeated Big Ten surprise team Indiana, Ohio State stands as the odds-on favorite to claim the College Football Playoff national championship trophy at season’s end. This game is not just about playoff positioning; it serves as a potential play-in game for the chance to face No. 1-ranked Oregon (11-0) in the Big Ten championship game. If Ohio State can halt Indiana’s Cinderella run, fans will be treated to a much-anticipated rematch against the Ducks, who narrowly defeated them earlier this season.
Oregon’s Dominance and Bye Week
The top-ranked Ducks have navigated the season flawlessly, boasting an 11-0 record and a perfect 8-0 in the Big Ten. Their impressive run includes a thrilling one-point victory over Ohio State back in mid-October. As they enjoy their final bye week, Oregon will be keenly observing the outcome of the Ohio State-Indiana clash, knowing that their path to the College Football Playoff is firmly in their hands. Regardless of Saturday’s results, the Ducks are well-positioned for the No. 1 overall seed in the playoff.
Georgia’s Resurgence
Now that’s the Georgia we all remember! The Bulldogs (8-2, 6-2 SEC) are coming off a convincing 31-17 victory over Tennessee, showcasing their potential just when it matters most. With only two home games remaining against UMass and Georgia Tech, Georgia is gaining momentum at the right time. The victory over Tennessee has led Vegas oddsmakers to view the Bulldogs as a legitimate national championship contender, leapfrogging Texas for the third-best odds to lift the CFP championship trophy.
Texas and the SEC Championship Picture
Despite a drop in their odds, Texas (9-1, 7-1 SEC) remains in contention for a spot in the SEC Championship Game in their inaugural season in the league. However, they must secure victories against Kentucky and their fierce rival, Texas A&M, in the Lonestar State showdown. The Longhorns have proven themselves as serious contenders throughout the season, but their lack of Top 25 wins could be a stumbling block. A strong finish, including a win over A&M, could significantly bolster their playoff chances.
Alabama’s Tightrope Walk
No. 7 Alabama (8-2, 4-2 SEC) is still in the mix, especially after a dominant 52-7 win over FCS-level Mercer. However, the Crimson Tide face a challenging road ahead, with a bitter rivalry game against Auburn and a potential SEC Championship matchup looming. A convincing win at Oklahoma could solidify their status as a playoff contender, but the risk of falling short in the SEC title game could leave them outside the 12-team playoff picture.
Ole Miss: The Dark Horse
The Rebels (8-2, 6-2 SEC) are riding high after their stunning upset over Georgia and are in a prime position to secure a playoff spot by winning their last two games. Ole Miss is viewed favorably by Vegas, with their impressive performances under Coach Lane Kiffin capturing attention. However, Kiffin may prefer to avoid the SEC Championship Game altogether, especially if it means facing off against Alabama or Texas.
Penn State’s Dilemma
The odds take a notable dip when we look at Penn State (9-1, 6-1 B10), which finds itself on the outside looking in for the Big Ten Championship Game due to a head-to-head loss against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will be rooting for the Buckeyes against Indiana, hoping to maintain the value of their own loss to Ohio State. Should Indiana continue its surprising run and defeat the Buckeyes, it could significantly impact Penn State’s playoff hopes.
Notre Dame’s Path to the Playoff
Notre Dame (9-1) has been on a roll, winning eight straight games since a surprising loss to Northern Illinois. With a chance to solidify their playoff candidacy against 24th-ranked Army and a struggling USC, the Fighting Irish are poised to make a statement. As an independent, they may not qualify for a Top 4 seed, but a strong finish could secure them a first-round home game.
Miami’s Rollercoaster Season
The Hurricanes were idle in Week 12 but are still reeling from a shocking upset against Georgia Tech. However, Miami’s playoff hopes remain alive if they can win their final two games against Wake Forest and Syracuse. With Heisman hopeful QB Cam Ward leading the charge, Miami’s ability to bounce back could position them for a Top 4 seed.
Tennessee’s Tough Road Ahead
After a tough loss to Georgia, Tennessee (8-2, 6-2 SEC) finds itself in a precarious position among the two-loss SEC contenders. Despite the setback, their head-to-head victory over Alabama keeps them in the conversation. If Alabama falters in the SEC Championship Game, the CFP committee will face a difficult decision regarding the SEC’s playoff representatives.
Others Receiving National Championship Odds
As the playoff picture becomes clearer, several other teams are still in the mix for national championship odds. Here’s a look at the rest of the contenders according to FanDuel Sportsbook:
Colorado +5000
SMU +5000
Clemson +6000
Texas A&M +10000
Boise State +15000
Tulane +20000
Arizona State +25000
BYU +25000
Iowa State +25000
South Carolina +50000
Army +80000
TCU +100000
Texas Tech +100000
West Virginia +100000
UNLV +100000
Kansas State +100000
Baylor +100000
As we approach the final stretch of the season, the excitement surrounding the College Football Playoff continues to build. Who will rise to the occasion, and who will fall short? The next few weeks promise to deliver thrilling matchups and unforgettable moments!
