If Texas falls to Texas A&M this Saturday, the Longhorns will wrap up their season with a 10-2 record, leaving them on the sidelines for the SEC title game. This scenario would mean a nail-biting wait to see if they could snag an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff (CFP).
What does a 10-2 record really mean for Texas? With their best win coming against Vanderbilt and losses to two ranked opponents, the Longhorns’ playoff hopes hang by a thread. The decision on whether they make the playoff field is still uncertain, and Warde Manuel, chair of the CFP selection committee, isn’t providing much clarity on the matter.
“Thanks for your question,” Manuel stated, clearly avoiding any projections. “We don’t, I don’t, get into projections. We don’t talk about projections when we get in the room, about the what-ifs, if people lose games then where will it put them.” His comments reflect the chaotic nature of college football, especially this late in the season. With seven of the top 25 teams losing recently, the landscape is shifting rapidly.
Manuel continued to emphasize the committee’s approach: “So we don’t project what will happen. We just look at what happens overall amongst the teams this weekend to make our decision over the next two weekends really.” This approach underscores the unpredictable nature of college football, where every game can dramatically alter playoff scenarios.
Three-loss teams are likely to be in play for bids, too
As the playoff picture unfolds, it’s not just Texas that’s in the mix. The latest College Football Playoff rankings revealed that a trio of three-loss SEC teams are still in contention for a coveted top 12 spot. Alabama sits at No. 13, followed closely by Ole Miss at No. 14 and South Carolina at No. 15.
While none of these programs would qualify for the playoff if the season ended today, the clock is ticking. With two weeks left, the potential for movement in the rankings is significant. On Tuesday night, the pressing question was how realistic it is for these teams to climb higher.
ESPN’s Rece Davis posed an intriguing question to Manuel regarding the committee’s willingness to rank a team with more losses ahead of one with fewer. Manuel responded, “Well, I think the appetite is there to rank the teams as we see them. If a team with one more loss than a team in front of them, and we feel like they should be ahead of them, then we’ve shown that we will do that.” This statement highlights the committee’s commitment to fairness and their focus on overall performance rather than just win-loss records.
Interestingly, the three-loss teams already rank ahead of some two-loss teams in the Big 12. For example, Arizona State is at No. 16, Iowa State is at No. 18, and BYU is at No. 19. This raises an important question: what happens if teams like Miami or SMU stumble and join the two-loss crowd? Could a three-loss team leapfrog them, inching closer to those all-important playoff spots?
Manuel provided some historical context, saying, “In the past 10 years, in the history of the CFP, there have been 22 teams that have been ranked in the top 12 with three losses.” This statistic reveals that the committee is not averse to ranking teams with multiple losses if their performance warrants it.
So, what does this all mean for Texas? If they lose to Texas A&M, they’ll be left hoping for a favorable outcome from the committee, while also watching closely as other teams battle it out in the final weeks. The stakes are high, and the drama is palpable.
As the season winds down, fans are left wondering: will Texas find a way to sneak into the playoff picture, or will they be left out in the cold? The excitement of college football lies in its unpredictability, and this season is no exception. Every game counts, and every loss could change the playoff landscape dramatically.
In the coming weeks, as teams fight for their playoff lives, the conversations around rankings and potential matchups will only intensify. College football fans know all too well that anything can happen, and with so much on the line, the final stretch of the season promises to be thrilling. Will Texas rise to the occasion, or will they be another team left wondering what could have been? Only time will tell, and that’s what makes college football so exhilarating.
