The excitement surrounding the 12-team College Football Playoff is palpable, as it promises to bring more teams into the playoff chase, thereby preserving the integrity of the regular season. As we approach November, fans and analysts alike are eager to see how this new format will unfold.
Last year, as teams entered Week 10, there were 13 Power 5 teams with one loss or fewer, while a two-loss team had never made it into the four-team playoff. Fast forward to this season, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. With the automatic Group of 5 berth already accounted for, only one team will emerge from that category. This leaves us with 24 Power 4 schools competing for the remaining 11 spots, a significant increase in the number of teams vying for playoff contention.
So, how many teams are truly in the mix as we head into Week 10? If we exclude teams with three losses, we find ourselves with nearly double the contenders compared to last year. This shift adds an intriguing layer of complexity to the playoff race, making every game count even more than before.
Power 4 teams with two losses or less
Let’s break down the teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, categorized by conference:
CONF. | NO LOSSES | ONE LOSS | TWO LOSSES |
ACC | Miami (8-0), Pitt (7-0) | SMU (7-1), Clemson (6-1) | Syracuse (5-2), Duke (6-2) |
Big Ten | Oregon (8-0), Indiana (8-0), Penn State (6-1) | Ohio State (6-1) | Illinois (6-2) |
Big 12 | BYU (8-0), Iowa State (7-0) | Kansas State (7-1) | Arizona State (5-2), Colorado (6-2) |
SEC | Texas A&M (7-1), Texas (7-1), Georgia (6-1), Tennessee (6-1) | LSU (6-2), Alabama (6-2), Ole Miss (6-2), Missouri (6-2) | |
Independent | Notre Dame (7-1) |
November is shaping up to be a thrilling month for college football fans. Each week, Sporting News will provide updates on the 12-team playoff picture, including first-round byes, matchups, and bubble teams.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
As we look ahead, here are the projected first-round byes based on current standings:
No. 1 Oregon (8-0, Big Ten champion)
Oregon has been on fire, recently defeating Illinois 38-9 and outscoring two opponents 73-9 since claiming the top spot. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is back in the Heisman Trophy conversation, throwing for 291 yards and three touchdowns. With a pivotal matchup against Michigan on the horizon, the Ducks are poised to solidify their championship aspirations.
No. 2 Georgia (6-1, SEC champion)
Despite being in the one-loss mix, Georgia remains a projected SEC champion. Quarterback Carson Beck needs to step up, especially with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in five SEC games. The Bulldogs are riding high after a strong performance against Texas and will look to maintain that momentum against Florida.
No. 3 Miami (8-0, ACC champion)
The Hurricanes cruised to a 36-14 victory over Florida State, showcasing a balanced offensive attack. With no turnovers and a solid rushing game, Miami looks to keep the momentum going against Duke, led by former coach Manny Diaz.
No. 4 BYU (8-0, Big 12 champion)
BYU has carved out a path to the playoffs with impressive performances, including a road win at UCF. The Cougars are gearing up for a rivalry game against Utah after a well-deserved bye week.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
Now, let’s take a look at the projected first-round matchups heading into Week 10:
No. 12 Boise State (6-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Penn State (7-0, Big Ten at-large)
Boise State remains the highest-ranked at-large team, boasting a Heisman candidate in Ashton Jeanty. Penn State is coming off a win against Wisconsin but faces a crucial showdown with Ohio State to stay in the Big Ten championship race.
No. 11 Texas A&M (7-1, SEC at-large) at No. 6 Ohio State (6-1, Big Ten at-large)
Texas A&M has emerged as a playoff contender, thanks to strong performances from backup quarterback Marcel Reed. Ohio State is looking to solidify its position after a narrow victory against Nebraska.
No. 10 Notre Dame (7-1, Independent at-large) at No. 7 Texas (7-1, SEC at-large)
This matchup promises to be exciting, with both teams coming off strong performances. Texas narrowly escaped an upset against Vanderbilt, while Notre Dame dominated Navy.
No. 9 Tennessee (6-1, SEC at-large) at No. 8 Clemson (6-1, ACC at-large)
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, setting the stage for a thrilling matchup. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has been on fire since the season opener, while Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson leads the Vols in rushing.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Finally, let’s examine some bubble teams that could still make a push for the playoffs:
Iowa State (7-0, Big 12)
The Cyclones had a bye week, but with Texas A&M’s rise, they face increased pressure to secure a playoff spot. Their strong turnover margin and scoring defense could be key as they head into the final stretch.
Indiana (8-0, Big Ten)
The Hoosiers are on the brink of breaking into the playoff conversation, especially after a significant victory against Washington. Can they maintain their momentum against Michigan State?
Pitt (7-0, ACC)
Pitt’s defense has been stellar, with a recent blowout victory against Syracuse. The Panthers face a challenging November schedule, starting with a road trip to SMU.
Kansas State (7-1, Big 12)
Fresh off a thrilling win against Kansas, the Wildcats are looking to capitalize on their momentum. With a crucial matchup against Iowa State looming, they have a chance to improve their playoff standing.
Alabama (6-2, SEC)
The Crimson Tide are back in the conversation after a dominant win against Missouri. With a strong rushing attack and a solid defense, Alabama remains a formidable contender.
As we gear up for an exhilarating November, the College Football Playoff race is heating up. With so many teams in contention, every game will be crucial. Who will rise to the occasion and secure their spot in the playoffs? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: the excitement is just beginning!