The SEC’s aspirations have taken a significant hit as we head into Rivalry Week. Once demanding five playoff teams, the conference now finds itself hoping for four and settling for three. What has led to this shift in expectations?
Alabama’s tumultuous season continued with a disappointing 24-3 road loss to Oklahoma. This defeat marked the Crimson Tide’s third road loss of the season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Jalen Milroe struggled, throwing three interceptions, while the Sooners celebrated a signature home victory in their inaugural SEC season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss faced a similar fate, suffering a setback against Florida, losing 24-17 at The Swamp. The Rebels struggled on third down, converting just 3 of 14 attempts, and committed three turnovers, which likely dashed Lane Kiffin’s playoff hopes.
As the dust settles, teams like Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee emerge as the best bets from a conference that lacks a clear dominant team. With only two weeks remaining in the 2024 college football regular season, the path to the 12-team College Football Playoff is fraught with challenges for the SEC. No amount of politicking will save these teams unless chaos ensues in other conferences during Rivalry Week and conference championship Saturday.
Each week, Sporting News provides an insightful breakdown of the 12-team College Football Playoff, highlighting first-round byes, matchups, and bubble teams. As we approach Rivalry Week, the playoff picture is becoming clearer, but the stakes are higher than ever.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
The playoff race is heating up, and here’s how the top seeds are shaping up:
No. 1 Oregon (11-0, Big Ten champion)
Oregon has secured its place in the Big Ten championship game, and if they face Ohio State again, the Buckeyes will likely be favored. After a bye week, the Ducks are poised to maintain their No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff standings. With a perfect regular season on the line, all eyes will be on their upcoming matchups, especially against Washington, a team that has given them trouble in recent years.
No. 2 Texas (10-1, SEC champion)
Texas continues to control its destiny in the SEC and the playoff race. Following a solid 31-14 victory over Kentucky, Quinn Ewers showcased his prowess, passing for 191 yards and two touchdowns. The Longhorns can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas A&M, a rivalry matchup that hasn’t occurred since 2011. A victory here would not only secure their conference title but likely lock in a playoff spot as well.
No. 3 Miami (10-1, ACC)
The Hurricanes are on the brink of clinching their spot in the ACC championship game, needing a win against Syracuse. A matchup against SMU looms on the horizon, and it promises to be a high-scoring affair, with Miami averaging 44.8 points per game and SMU 39.3. This could very well be the most exciting game of conference championship weekend.
No. 4 Arizona State (9-2, Big 12)
Arizona State has become a late-season darling, defeating BYU 28-23 in a thrilling finish. Cam Skattebo’s impressive performance, with 147 rushing yards and three touchdowns, has propelled the Sun Devils into the Big 12 championship race. With four straight wins under their belt, they control their destiny as they prepare for the Territorial Cup against Arizona.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
As we gear up for Rivalry Week, here’s a look at the projected first-round matchups for the College Football Playoff:
No. 12 Boise State (10-1, Mountain West champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (10-1, Big Ten at-large)
Ohio State delivered a strong performance against Indiana, winning 38-15. Quarterback Will Howard was efficient, completing 22 of 26 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The Buckeyes could secure the No. 1 overall seed with a victory against Oregon in a potential Big Ten championship rematch. Meanwhile, Boise State is holding on to its Group of 5 champion status, with Ashton Jeanty making headlines in the Heisman race.
No. 11 SMU (10-1, ACC at-large) at No. 6 Penn State (10-1, Big Ten at-large)
Penn State edged out Minnesota 26-25 in a nail-biter, showcasing their resilience with a game-winning drive. The Nittany Lions can secure a playoff spot with a win against Maryland. SMU, after a dominant victory over Virginia, has clinched a spot in the ACC championship game and could sneak into the playoff as an at-large team.
No. 10 Tennessee (9-2, SEC at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (10-1, Independent)
Notre Dame showcased their dominance by dismantling Army 49-14. The Volunteers are back in the playoff picture after recent SEC losses, and if they can avoid an upset against Vanderbilt, they’ll earn a trip to South Bend.
No. 9 Indiana (10-1, Big Ten at-large) at No. 8 Georgia (9-2, SEC at-large)
Indiana’s playoff path opened with SEC losses, even after their setback against Ohio State. Meanwhile, Georgia continues to impress, defeating UMass 59-21. This matchup gives the SEC a home game in the first round, bolstered by Georgia’s strong strength-of-schedule argument.
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
The bubble is tight, and several teams are vying for a spot:
Iowa State (9-2, Big 12)
Iowa State is back in the Big 12 championship hunt after a thrilling 31-28 win over Utah. With a crucial matchup against Kansas State ahead, the Cyclones are in a position to control their own destiny.
BYU (9-2, Big 12)
BYU’s playoff hopes are dwindling, but they could still face Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. They need to beat Houston and hope for losses from Iowa State or Arizona State to stay in the race.
Clemson (9-2, ACC)
Clemson remains in the mix after a decisive 51-14 victory over Wofford. However, they must beat South Carolina and hope Miami secures a win against Syracuse to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Texas A&M (8-3, SEC)
Despite a tough loss to Auburn, Texas A&M still has a path to the CFP if they can defeat Texas and Georgia in their next two games. The Aggies need to capitalize on these opportunities to make their case.
As Rivalry Week approaches, the excitement and tension in college football are palpable. With so much on the line, every game matters, and the playoff picture is more thrilling than ever!
