It’s fantasy semifinals time! If you’re still alive and going strong, congratulations — it’s been a rough year in fantasy, with so many of the top draft picks either getting hurt or underperforming along the way. But you’ve hit enough of your picks to get here and navigated your way through the waiver wire to maximize your chances of winning it all. Now, why stop now? With just one week left to go in most leagues, prepare for the championship game now by picking up next week’s streaming options a week early. No need to hold onto players for depth anymore — it’s an all-out sprint to the finish!
Our weekly Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. More importantly, it also aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. We called JK Dobbins, Jauan Jennings, Tucker Kraft, Jerry Jeudy, Jameis Winston, Juwan Johnson, and more before their breakout weeks, and more hits are on the way. Why exhaust your FAAB dollars or waiver priority to claim the next breakout when you can add him now for free?
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: QB
Let’s dive right into the quarterback options for Week 17.
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (48% ownership in ESPN leagues/49% ownership in Yahoo leagues)
Week 17 opponent: Kansas City (-10% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
With George Pickens hopefully back for the Christmas Day affair, betting your championship hopes on a successful moonball or three is far from the worst idea in the world. Over the last four weeks, Wilson is fifth in the league with 8.5 yards per pass attempt, and that was a league-best 10.4 in Weeks 12-13 when Pickens was healthy and playing. A couple of rainbow shots into the end zone could be the difference between first place and runner-up when all is said and done.
Drew Lock, QB, New York Giants (2%/1%)
Week 17 opponent: Indianapolis (-3% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
For the truly desperate, the Giants are the team most likely to have their Week 17 starter freely available on the waiver wire — even Mason Rudolph is trending toward being rostered more than Lock. However, if you’re looking to play matchups, Indianapolis is about as good as you’re going to get. The Colts have been a more-or-less neutral opponent for fantasy quarterbacks all year long, but an average of 16.5 fantasy points allowed is more than you’re going to find freely available.
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: RB
Now, let’s tackle the running backs!
Alexander Mattison (41%/39%) and Ameer Abdullah (19%/19%), RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 17 opponent: New Orleans (+10% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
And so we reach the end of the waiver wire watchlist season in the same place we’ve spent much of the year — trying to solve the Raiders RB Carousel. The rise of Sincere McCormick seemed to have finally solved that issue for us, but his ankle injury on Monday appears to have knocked him out for the rest of the season. So, we’re back to Mattison and Abdullah, trying to divine Las Vegas’ apparent random use of their running back rotation. The Saints are allowing 19.9 fantasy points per game to running backs, so if you pick the Raider with the lion’s share of the work, you could reap some pretty significant rewards.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (49%/54%)
Week 17 opponent: New England (+12% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
Edwards is available in a majority of leagues right now because he’s pretty much entirely touchdown-dependent at this point. He simply doesn’t have the volume or efficiency to make him a reliable plug-and-play fantasy starter. But you’re not looking for an everyday starter — you’re looking for someone for Week 17 specifically, and the Patriots have no qualms letting people into the end zone.
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: WR
Moving on to wide receivers, let’s find some gems!
Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34%/24%)
Week 17 opponent: Carolina (+0% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
McMillan appears to be getting his sea legs underneath him as he approaches the end of his rookie season. He’s only gone over 50 yards twice this season, but they were in the past two weeks, where he also collected a total of 13 targets and found the end zone three times. That’s the sort of positive trend you should feel comfortable gambling on.
Cedric Tillman (30%/33%) and Elijah Moore (20%/21%), WR, Cleveland Browns
Week 17 opponent: Miami (-12% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
We’re down to QB3 in Cleveland, as the Jameis Winston rollercoaster has gone into one of its sadly predictable dips. That means Dorian Thompson-Robinson gets the nod from here on out, which probably means a more run-heavy, conservative game plan for Cleveland. And yet, looking at the wideouts freely available, it’s hard to do much better than Tillman.
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: TE
Tight ends are crucial too, so let’s see who’s available!
Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (26%/24%)
Week 17 opponent: New England (+9% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
The biggest question mark right now when it comes to Week 17 is Will Dissly’s availability. If he’s healthy, he is startable. We knew that he was going to miss a couple of weeks with his Week 14 shoulder injury. You don’t need bench slots now, though, so you can afford to pick Dissly up and gamble on him being healthy enough to play in the championship game in two weeks.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (49%/68%)
Week 17 opponent: LA Chargers (-17% DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against)
In particularly shallow leagues, Henry may still be sitting out there. He hasn’t exploded in any one week this season, which is why he hasn’t been snatched up everywhere, but he has had a consistently high floor, especially as Drake Maye has continued to develop.
Week 17 Fantasy Waiver Wire Watchlist: Defense
Finally, let’s not forget about defenses!
For Week 17:
- Buccaneers vs Panthers (Bryce Young)
- Chargers at Patriots (Drake Maye)
- Dolphins at Browns (Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
- Saints vs Raiders (Aiden O’Connell/Desmond Ridder)
As we gear up for the fantasy semifinals, remember that every decision counts. Keep your eyes on the waiver wire, and don’t be afraid to take some calculated risks. The championship is within your reach!
